Comparison of the Holt-Winter and SARIMA Methods in Forecasting the Number of Participants in the PPSDM Oil and Gas Training
Abstrak
Perencanaan jumlah peserta pelatihan merupakan aspek penting dalam mendukung efektivitas penyelenggaraan program pelatihan di PPSDM Migas. Ketidakakuratan dalam memperkirakan jumlah
peserta dapat berdampak pada perencanaan kapasitas pelatihan, alokasi sumber daya, dan pencapaian target kinerja. Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan kinerja metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winter) dan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) dalam meramalkan jumlah peserta pelatihan hasil kerja sama di PPSDM Migas. Data yang digunakan merupakan data bulanan jumlah peserta pelatihan hasil kerja sama periode Januari 2020 hingga Desember 2024. Pemodelan dilakukan menggunakan metode Holt-Winter dan SARIMA, kemudian dievaluasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) untuk menentukan model dengan tingkat akurasi terbaik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kedua metode mampu memodelkan pola musiman pada data historis, namun
metode Holt-Winter menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 34,19%, lebih rendah dibandingkan metode SARIMA sebesar 41,58%. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa metode Holt-Winter memiliki tingkat akurasi yang lebih baik dalam meramalkan jumlah peserta pelatihan hasil kerja sama di PPSDM Migas. Oleh karena itu,
metode Holt-Winter direkomendasikan sebagai alternatif dalam mendukung perencanaan jumlah peserta pelatihan, penyusunan kapasitas pelatihan, pengalokasian sumber daya, dan pengambilan keputusan yang lebih efektif di PPSDM Migas.
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