The Impact of Open Unemployment, Population Growth and Economic Growth on the Poverty Rate in South Kalimantan (2020–2024)
Abstract
Poverty is a complex structural issue that remains a major challenge in regional development. Although South Kalimantan Province recorded the lowest poverty rate nationally in 2021, regional disparities, high open unemployment, and rapid population growth remain key concerns. This study aims to analyze the influence of open unemployment, population growth, and economic growth on poverty levels in South Kalimantan from 2020 to 2024. Using a quantitative approach and panel data regression across 13 districts/cities, the study adopts the Random Effect Model based on Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests. The estimation results show that open unemployment and population growth significantly affect poverty levels, with p-values of 0.0437 and 0.0069, respectively. In contrast, economic growth does not show a significant effect (p-value = 0.9108). Population growth emerged as the most dominant factor with a coefficient of -0.468169. These findings highlight the urgency of data-driven policies to address unemployment and leverage demographic potential in regional poverty reduction strategies
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