Regional Disparities in Time to First Formal Employment among Educated Youth in Java Island
Abstract
This study aims to identify socio-demographic factors that influence the duration of educated youth transition to their first formal employment. It also compares the effects of these factors across regions with high and low unemployment rates on Java Island. A quantitative approach using survival analysis is employed to examine the time to first formal employment. The analysis uses an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) framework. Model selection is based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), with a shared frailty specification to account for unobserved regional heterogeneity. The socio-demographic variables include gender, age, marital status, highest level of education, ownership of an internship certificate, and recent migrant status. The district minimum wage (UMK) is incorporated as a shared frailty variable. This study utilizes microdata from the National Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS) provided by BPS Statistics. The results indicate that the log-normal AFT model is the most appropriate for both -low and high- unemployment regions. Gender, age, highest level of education, and recent migrant status are significantly affect the time to first formal employment in both regional groups. Marital status and ownership of an internship certificate are some significant factors that influence only in low-unemployment regions. The transition of educated youth in low-unemployment areas into formal employment is quicker and has a greater numbers of transition than those in high-unemployment areas. The shared frailty model, which includes district minimum wages (UMK), improves estimation accuracy by capturing unobserved regional differences.
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